Can the political history of India serve as a context for probability mapping of the likely post poll arrangements and alliances?
Can there be a definitive list of sources to refer to in the effort to articulate plausible and viable scenarios?
Alexis Carrel said “A few observations and much reasoning lead to error; many observations and a little reasoning to truth”
Analysis of a likely outcome must anchor its hypothesis in some ‘greater likelihood’. That seems remote and yet blindingly obvious at the same time. Our political captains equivocate, obfuscate and dissimulate with near perfection “QUI NESCIT DISSIMULAR, NESCIT REGNARE’
So what does on go by? For one, asking questions may help.
- Why is Mr LK Advani concerned about ‘Overconfidence’ ?
How many are the swing states?
Who as individual satraps are likely to inspire confidence?
Where from this surge of confidence?
Who has committed?
- Can one conclude that the 3rd and 4th front are compartments in the same train headed to no destination or is it that the LJP+RJD+SP combine is just as much about pragmatic politics as it is about posturing ?
- Are all parties, bar none, essentially viewing post poll alliances as maneuvers to be able to regroup when required simply in order to exclude Mayawati & the BSP from any ruling coalition? Is she the common threat ?
- What is the closest equivalent to the Samyukt Vidhayak Dal experiment of the 1960’s ? Can the old Saffronites come back to a larger Janata coalition ? why ? why not ?
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Mayawati is a threat in the North only. Currently she is limited to UP, where she has almost wiped out the BJP with her Dalit-Brahmin alliance.In MP, Bihar, Rajasthan and Delhi she is more of a spoiler as of yet.
ReplyDeleteThe BSP however is a great learning organization and may yet spring a surprise in the future.