Saturday, April 18, 2009

Distinction, Debut, Discourse, Disaster, Discpline

In our democracy, some unique Distinctions:

1. Unlike the western democracies, the less privileged sections of Indian society are enamoured with the electoral process and their voting percentages are substantially higher.

2. The smaller parties have more political and ideological maneuverability when compared to the larger national parties

3. The population of the voting constituents tends to increase when we go from national to state to municipal /panchayat elections. Exactly the opposite happens in the western democracies where local governance suffers from apathy.

-- The post liberalization generation comes of age -- Debut

This is the first election where those who were born in the year 1991 will have the vote. They have lived their entire life in a ‘liberalised’ economy. They have grown up believing that in India all is well and everything is possible to achieve. So they will vote and we shall see what that throws up.

-- Hardly can you call this an election for the parliament -- Discourse

This election aims to elect a parliament but the role of parliament itself has never been more diminished than in the recent past. Abysmal number of days in session, virtual absence of debate and passage of almost all major bills after noisy and chaotic scenes instead of any discussion , Sting /Scam money being shown on live TV inside the Lok Sabha and parliamentarians being accused of and implicated in taking money for raising questions as well as for body trafficking . Phew.

-- It has been sanctified as a Presidential contest by parties which have virtually no internal democracy --Disaster

As if to drive the last nail, instead of alleviating the pain, this election has become LK Advani vs. Manmohan Singh (proxy Rahul Gandhi). Who has time for party in parliament reviews in the era of multi party kaleidoscopic coalitions? When there is virtually no internal democracy in the political party structure, how do you expect a higher calling for democratic values into the houses of parliament?

--When the code is bigger than the conduct –- Discipline

Article 324 of the constitution vests many powers with the Election Commission and makes it the responsibility of the Election Commission to be pro-active in superintending, directing & controlling the elections with the powers vested in it. But the implementation and enforcement of the code and the spirit of it are slightly different matters!!

Hate speeches, communalization of rhetoric, personal attacks, calls for violent action etc are great for churning news but the spirit of the elections are not impacted by a few instances. The bigger challenges, unaddressed as they are, include election finance, role of state sponsorship in the political process etc. Meanwhile, a film star turned parvenu politician has said things about a state CM and the show goes on…….

Write in to me at india.political.report@gmail.com

Friday, April 17, 2009

Gates Gets it

The American Defense Secretary has shown the way with his 2010 budget.

If the Americans are saying Aye to managing the short term and investing behind equipping themselves to fight pirates, militias and fanatics in localized skirmishes while balancing their allocations to the conventional Big War with Big enemy, we say the rest of the world ought to follow.

Especially, India. We can ill afford to ignore it and persist with delusional tendencies.

Some parts of the Gates plan ought to be blindly copied e.g.

- Special forces to combat the terrorist threat,

- Strengthening paramilitary forces,

- Revisiting specific equipment needs for the changed nature of combat,

- Prioritizing cyber defense,

- Localized logistics infrastructure instead of megalithic apparatus

In other words, unconventional investments for unconventional warfare.

We need a panchayat plan for grass roots preparedness not a parliamentary plan for pretentious super power day dreaming. Naxalites don’t have tank squadrons and suicidal terrorists cannot be detected on sophisticated radar. We need first aid before we get the MRI machines.

Thursday, April 16, 2009

Naxalites indoors, Taliban at the door

A few questions -

- If 150 out of 600 districts in India are Naxalite ridden, what has participative democracy done for those who are violently wrecking the status quo? Who is answerable?

- If we see Naxalite insurgency as one of the main concerns to India's peace and progress why is there such asymmetrical response even in contiguous states e.g. Orissa and Chhattisgarh?

- If a handful of violent criminals can strike at will, why is an aircraft carrier a priority over police modernisation ?

- Is Law and order as a state subject a holy cow?

- Is there any national policy on disaffection and disruptive extremism within India? how many more examples of utter chaos will we need for our mass media to focus on heartland India rather than Lahore and Swat ?

Wednesday, April 15, 2009

The Pawar Permutations

The original (3×3×3) Rubik's Cube has eight corners and twelve edges. There are 8! (40,320) ways to arrange the corner cubes. Seven can be oriented independently, and the orientation of the eighth depends on the preceding seven, giving 37 (2,187) possibilities. There are 12! /2 (239,500,800) ways to arrange the edges, since an odd permutation of the corners implies an odd permutation of the edges as well. Eleven edges can be flipped independently, with the flip of the twelfth depending on the preceding ones, giving 211 (2,048) possibilities

There are exactly 43,252,003,274,489,856,000 permutations, which is approximately forty-three quintillion. So, if every permutation of a 57-millimeter Rubik's Cube were lined up end to end, it would stretch out approximately 261 light years. Alternatively, if laid out on the ground, this is enough to cover the earth with 273 layers of cubes, recognizing the fact that the radius of the earth sphere increases by 57 mm with each layer of cubes.

The preceding figure is limited to permutations that can be reached solely by turning the sides of the cube. If one considers permutations reached through disassembly of the cube, the number becomes twelve times as large.

If you grasped the above, you may be eligible to try to understand the possibilities in the politics of Mr Sharad Pawar. Consider what his astute political mind is capable of. He (and therefore the NCP) has made pivoting arrangements on each constituent cube . He is on record to say that he does not believe in political untouchability. Thus, he is open to doing business, on his terms, with any and every political formation and politician. Layer this with an unrivalled depth of experience and an ability to deliver the political goods and you may begin to fathom the limitless possibilities.

In the eventuality that there is “ come one come all “ flavour post election, this is one man who has probably worked out the 6 solid facings that are eventually possible.

In case there are a couple that don’t turn, colour blindness may legitimately become a qualification in Indian Politics

Independents Zindabad

The Hon'ble PM, said voting for independents is a waste of a vote. They never win and only spoil it for the others, is what he is reported to have said. Well, that is news ......

The constitution of the republic does not recognise anything called a political 'party' .

Independents are important, they show us that the acid rain of vested interest has not wiped out life. Democracy lives .

The PM may also note , it was previously commonly believed that the Prime Minister was to be the leader of the Lok Sabha ...........

What's the Question ?

Can the political history of India serve as a context for probability mapping of the likely post poll arrangements and alliances?

Can there be a definitive list of sources to refer to in the effort to articulate plausible and viable scenarios?

Alexis Carrel said “A few observations and much reasoning lead to error; many observations and a little reasoning to truth”

Analysis of a likely outcome must anchor its hypothesis in some ‘greater likelihood’. That seems remote and yet blindingly obvious at the same time. Our political captains equivocate, obfuscate and dissimulate with near perfection “QUI NESCIT DISSIMULAR, NESCIT REGNARE’

So what does on go by? For one, asking questions may help.

- Why is Mr LK Advani concerned about ‘Overconfidence’ ?

How many are the swing states?
Who as individual satraps are likely to inspire confidence?
Where from this surge of confidence?
Who has committed?

- Can one conclude that the 3rd and 4th front are compartments in the same train headed to no destination or is it that the LJP+RJD+SP combine is just as much about pragmatic politics as it is about posturing ?

- Are all parties, bar none, essentially viewing post poll alliances as maneuvers to be able to regroup when required simply in order to exclude Mayawati & the BSP from any ruling coalition? Is she the common threat ?

- What is the closest equivalent to the Samyukt Vidhayak Dal experiment of the 1960’s ? Can the old Saffronites come back to a larger Janata coalition ? why ? why not ?

Middle Class, Public Opinion & Democracy

One would generally want to believe that the history of independent India is the history of the growth, fulfillment and advancement of its middle classes. They set the moral benchmarks, the socio-civic agenda, they provide the entrepreneurial incentive, and they lead the creation and propagation of knowledge. The middle class gave birth to and led our freedom struggle and took forward its momentum into building free India……..

Pause.

Where are they ?

They got left behind, elbowed out.

They exited, melted away.

They gave up.

Today, India’s political leadership is not middle class. It may never again be. Resolutely anti –middle class is how the political mood seems to be.

The rural poor, residual feudal elites, industrial magnates, trade unionists, co-operative bosses –They are many birds of varying plumage on the banyan tree but the middle class mynah is not to be seen

Therefore, it is amusing to see that almost a 100% of the erudite commentators, analysts and pollsters are from this absentee class. Their attitudes colour their comments. Their prejudices are as sharp as their accents. They all chirp away on Prime time cuckoo land.

Closer scrutiny will show you that the Hindi (as all vernacular) speaking middle and elite classes in the smaller towns in India are more accommodating of the pulls and pressures shaping their environment. They see along more dimensions and feel the texture better. It is evident if you pick up the Hindi dailies and read the comments on SP-BSP rivalry in UP for example. They are real in their assessment and not high brow at all.

This is unlike the ‘Gin Drinkers’ who talk to each other. Only to each other…….

Friday, April 10, 2009

Views on News

For those of you who have not yet heard of or read much concerning the huge debate over aggregation of news content on the Internet versus the good old ink and paper dailies, I say you haven’t missed much. For those of you who want it straight and simple, read Arianna Huffington’s post “The debate over online news : It’s the consumer stupid at www.huffingtonpost.com

Well done Arianna !

On the subject I have this to say to paper media barons –We are a thinking species and should not attempt to be Ostrich like. If over the last decade they would have done the right things in embracing technology and leading the change they would have not only survived but flourished

Now, deep breathing may help…

Nessun maggior dolore che ricordarsi del tempo felice ne la miseria"--"There is no greater pain than to recall a happy time in misery",The text is from Dante's Inferno, V.121-123 and to my mind aptly represents the mental state of those who represent the old world papers

Homo Sapien Newspaperman is undoubtedly the most aggressively verbose representative of the family hominidae and genus Homo. That generic verbosity, aggression and the attitude of dictating terms to the rest gains huge momentum when commercial urgency or rather impending disaster propels it.

The time it would have taken to create, through conventional media, the inventory and availability of content that the internet allows us today would be enough to dig the surface of the earth with a pen knife to make space for the Pacific Ocean.

They honk neigh bellow bleat or grunt and scamper away to their scrub,stable,byre,pen and sty.

How does it impact our politics ? Unable to canalize opinon through cozy conduits, the political operators will now see a mushrooming of many – to – many engagements rather than one - to -many diktats . The fun is only starting and India Political Report intends to ride the roller coaster !!

Thursday, April 9, 2009

Manifest Oh , a grain of rice

Rice is by far the most important crop in human history and has been so ever since Homo Sapiens first began cultivation Today, nearly 120,000 varieties of rice sustain two-thirds of the world's population, provides one-sixth of the per capita protein and nearly a fifth of the energy humans expend per capita.

But it is in Peninsular India, where Rice as a political trump card was par boiled along with the Dravidian movement and when the Sun of the DMK rose in 1967, it was three scoops of rice for 1 rupee that made it happen

Four decades later, promises are still being made on almost identical lines. All that is important in tangible terms for a manifesto, it would seem, can be written on that grain of rice

India Shining ...thanks to studio lighting

The election fever has once again brought into sharp focus the mushrooming of studio politicians in India. TV channel studios are the temples of modern Indian politics. Here Opinion is canalised /channel-ised for the good of society. It expands the political debate. Right !

Frankly, undergraduates in a group discussion to land themselves a job do better.

TV debate in India is a vile concoction of Propaganda, Persuasion, Pedantic and Pettiness in equal measure.

But even Marshall McLuhan would concede that there is no escaping TV going forward. That, only in terms of reach and saliency. Else, India retains its unique Rally culture Public involvement is high, although as spectators, for them it is a road show with song and dance as well.

One wonders if there is a bus that hops from studio to studio because you see the same politicians on different channels repeating the same half truths in the space of a half hour. It is virtual reality…virtually !!

Wednesday, April 8, 2009

Indian conventional media :Pray do tell us...

Breaking News has trumped Breaking news …down

Headline News has triumphed over news that is read between the lines

We are seeing a climate of resonant echoes. We are seeing inanities being camouflaged as issues of national import. The Idiot box is aptly so because of what’s on it. Conventional print has been press-ed into an advertorial !

To our friends in conventional media :

- We say “No repetition without value addition”

- We say “ No answers without asking the right questions first”

- We say “ Report on Indian politics with a global perspective”

- We say “Opine but don’t inhale”

- We say “ Be independent, inclusive, informative, intense”

I say “Amen”

India Political Report will give this to you and I promise more….it has just begun

Tuesday, April 7, 2009

Assets ?

Assets

As candidates for political parties are named and file their nomination, we hear about their declaration of assets to the concerned magistrate while filing their nominations. Details of vehicles owned, agricultural and urban land, residential & commercial properties, weight of precious metals in their possession, all this and more is shared by the media.

So What?

Presumably this is not a precursor to scrutiny. It is merely an affidavit of sorts. Has the ill gotten wealth of a political aspirant ever been a disqualifier?

So what next ? Nothing.

This is because the Indian people recognize the tip of an iceberg without visualizing its entire proportions. They can smell the stench and imagine the load that has been tapped. They can laugh, smirk and shrug. They can look forward to a free meal too.

What about water, sanitation, electricity, roads, public transport, municipal waste, crime, corruption, environment, foreign affairs, education, science & technology, national security, justice ? What does that have to do with the declared assets of the candidate ?

More than 700 million people on India’s electoral rolls, a significant percentage first time voters. 7 national parties, 40 state level political parties ,980 registered unrecognised parties. This is the caravan marching to the gates of the 15th Lok Sabha with more than 6000 candidates expected to be in the fray. Assets …. who has the time ?

Monday, April 6, 2009

The Son, Grandson and Great Grandson votes for Hindi


We have not eternal allies and we have not perpetual enemies. Our interests are eternal and perpetual and those interests it is our duty to followLord Palmerstone, British Prime Minister

Internalising this very logic, albeit not in the original context of diplomacy, our political class makes pre and post - poll alliances that perpetuate political interests – mostly personal, sometimes organisational but seldom ideological.

Rahul Gandhi - the son, grandson and great grandson of India’s past prime ministers is showing signs of making this logic stand on its head. Rightly so. It is in his long term interest. The UPA was a post poll alliance; it marked the Congress’s reluctant debut in presiding over a coalition. It did well. Well enough for it to be conceivable that it would legitimately seek to convert itself into a pre poll alliance and get votes on the basis of its performance? Commonly also referred to as ‘Congress +’ the allies were mostly representative of impositions, boundary conditions and ideological dyslexia that the Congress –India’s natural party of Governance – found irksome. It managed to minimise attrition, till it was avoidable. The Congress in 2009 is going it alone in the key Hindi heartland. That is a clear siren from the fog horn. Perhaps this young man , Congresses’ supreme leader in waiting (shy of 40 years, he is young by every definition) , is rolling the dice for a national revival. The questions are obviously about the timing and not the intent

If the Hindi heartland gamble does not pay off for Congress then in the couple of years that will follow with a very challenging economy, it may find itself saddled with the blame /incumbency .
Better to assess now and assert later!!

Sunday, April 5, 2009

Gandhi 1.2.3 -Champaran, Belchi, Pilibhit

---“Do not wait to strike till the iron is hot; but make it hot by striking." William Butler Yeats

---"It is unnatural for a majority to rule, for a majority can seldom be organized and united for specific action, and a minority can." Jean- Jacque Rousseau

Varun Gandhi’s debut into the ‘Great Indian General Election’ must draw inspiration from the above quoted thoughts in equal measure.

Even the shrewdest political observers can mistake petty demagoguery for strategy. Alas, here it is not the case. What was said is of much lesser consequence. Who said it, is the nub of the issue.

- Who is the agent provocateur?
- Who has grabbed this as a possible election tool?
- Who is going to benefit the most?
- Are those political executives who prosecute him actually in cohorts with those who support him?
- Is he being built up, demolished or actually (and simply) being punished for a wrong?
- We have no answers but believe that by asking the right questions truth shall be delineated…..

In Indian politics, there is a hoary tradition of seizing the moment and riding the wave. Gandhi in Chamaparan, Sardar Patel in Bardoli, Shyama Prasad Mukerjee in J&K , Indira Gandhi in Belchi ......what changed was that rhetoric was declutched from ideology, vulgarism got welded to gross opportunism and the drum beaters are also now the directors. As if at some point, quantity converted to quality and the mob becomes the political agenda setters.

Watch this unfolding of events and its seemingly tangential trajectory. It has the potential to ricochet into the sanctum sanctorum of Indian polity……

On Government sponsored Advertising pre-elections

Add warts

In all the national dailies that I read every morning as I sip my first cup of tea, I see many poorly laid out full page advertisements in plainly incompatible colours that tell me about the inauguration of rail lines, telephone exchanges, food processing parks and a dozen other things that are of no consequence to my daily life.

Inevitably, there is also a stamp album like line up of the passport size photographs of the movers and shakers of that ministry, state or Public Sector Enterprise. The rogue’s gallery actually indicates that power is multi tiered and often the placement level and size of the image clearly indicates the pecking order, no pun intended. "The art of government is the organization of idolatry." said George Bernard Shaw and, In fact, I wonder if it could give us guidance on how the 33 crore divinities in the Hindu Godly world could possibly be arranged.

Without an exception, these are all Hon’ble people. They are performing a public duty in informing me of a successful hundred days for a government in a state that I have never visited nor probably ever will.

Ask the question Why ? All sensible politicians ought to stay firmly in the midway zone between being hopelessly local and mindlessly global. In any case, there are probably less than two dozen political leaders in the entire country who have a claim to being leaders of even the state that they come from. Yet, it cannot be that this shrewd class of power players/seekers are poorly advised, misguided, or simply megalomaniacal in their drive for national advertorial led publicity . It is not an obscure obsession. They are hugely manipulative, thoroughly worldly and sharply focused on enlarging the perimeters of their personal power when they do this. Which is why, they hesitate not for a second in using state funds for targeted program publicity as an instrument of individual, family and party propaganda. They are operating strictly within the bounds of rationality. They probably have an eye on posterity .Surely, they are acutely aware that Indian voters accept their superego in proportion to the image carried in the advertisement. Indeed, they can justly make the implicit claim that their single-handed rule delivers effectively. They might even be able to point to improving standards of living, higher employment, reduced rates of crime, and an absence of civil discord. Not that these are criteria for winning again or even for being judged prior to a vote. May one entertain the sacrilegious thought that advertising budgets are not being spent but invested?

I am sure our bi-partisan journalistic fraternity is completely objective and no editorial warmth is ever generated by these insipid advertorials. It would be silly to think that media vehicles are to blame for a rather skewed share of spend. Isn’t Prime Time on English News channels exactly the right place for advertisements on Rural employment, pulse polio, pre requisite paper work for semi skilled labourers going to the Gulf .

Like al else, blame this on the politician. I suppose their advertised personas are not mere affectations. Probably it is their psychological compulsion in tricking themselves and others into believing that as merely themselves, they have a viable social role. That they are full of humility and infused with the spirit of team work in pursuing social good is manifest in the ubiquitous photo gallery. It is full of identity-diffusing properties. Believe it and watch on as this phenomenon reaches new highs with the approaching General Elections.

There are some things which are recession proof. Thank God.

America -Our Agony Aunt

According to the Artha Shastra, our best regarded treatise on statecraft, relations with other kings/states are to be established and carried out through ambassadors. It prescribes three types of ambassadors: the plenipotentiary, envoy with limited negotiating powers, and one who is merely a messenger. One sees that the distinctions are now blurred. There are at least half a dozen mission specific envoys and an equal number of statesmen sans portfolio crisscrossing the globe for the Western powers.
On perusing the media coverage post 26/11 in its entirety, if one was to plot a graph with media weight on the Y axis and duration of associated hype on the X axis, you would immediately recognize a pattern. Every time there was significant media coverage and all hopefuls were frothing with excitement, it was the red and blue of the star and stripes in the background. No one disputes the polar position of the United States and the pragmatism of convincing them of our case. Indeed it furthers a very relevant partnership made out of choice.
However, while a seemingly interminable procession of spent cartridges from the Bush administration made India their destination our government seems to have seen them as weapons of mass illusion. Somehow, we were rest assured that an impassioned plea to big brother would help our case against the neighbouring rogue state whose protégés were giving us a bloody nose. To what effect ? And why the need ? To whom did we submit ? For what leverage was the show and tell orchestrated ? Our leaders tell us all options are open, yet the menu of options seems to be like that of an American Diner – Keep it the Sunny side up.
Kautilya, our sage advisor, distinguished between six major approaches to foreign policy. The first a policy of maintaining peace with another state. The second , the policy of hostility which be followed if one is stronger than the enemy. The third, one of inaction most suitable when states are of equal strength. The fourth an outright invasion , a policy recommended for the very strong, The fifth recommended policy is of duality ,i.e. peace with one king/state while maintaining hostility towards another Only for the very weak and impotent was prescribed the sixth and last approach, i.e., seeking shelter with another king and waiting for better days . It is in the exclusive mandate of the sixth approach that we as a nation state seem to have put all our hopes.
The FBI may serve us nothing. In despair , we rely on externally owned instruments to deliver the coup de grace to an enemy that has previously been made so vulnerable with its crumbling reality. Are we so weak ? Think and keep watching as the Americans inspect the case.