Sunday, May 6, 2012

Baron De Jomini in his treatise the art of war makes definitional criteria for strategy compared to Grand Tactics, namely that to qualify for being a part of strategy the initiative must : 1. Be about the selection of the theater of war, and the discussion of the different combinations of which it admits. 2. Inform about the determination of the decisive points in these combinations, and the most favorable direction for operations Read this alongside the fact that a credible power center of the US establishment and its Secretary of State – Mrs Hillary Clinton rides into town not ascending the steps of the Presidential Palace in Delhi but of the Writer’s building in Kolkata To woo or what to do ? That is the question when it comes to courting Ms. Mamta Bannerjee another major power center, federalist, battle hardened veteran of the Indian political scene, communist nemesis. Is colonialism always going to enter the Indian heartland via the Gangetic delta of Bengal ? How and to what extent does this officially sanctify the weakness of the center’s hold over the states ? An entry in ‘ India Ink ‘ – The Wall Street Journal Global Edition says : “During her last visit to India, Ms. Clinton had asked India to take greater responsibilities in the Asia Pacific region. She could discuss with Banerjee the importance of West Bengal in promoting India’s relations with her eastern neighbors and thus, by extension, to the region as a whole. This would include close ties with Bangladesh, for instance. She could likely discuss the critical role West Bengal has in forging relations with partners” How can an Indian state have a role in country to country deliberations? Next you know, India will have Boris’s making each mofussil town a London in its ambitions !! But Quetelet thinks better the Americans than anyone else ...the record is uninspiring....

Monday, April 30, 2012

Beware of Majoritarian excesses in search of consensus

Politics is the art of the possible, the attainable, the next best . An inexact science though it may be, it is true to arithmetic to the extent that a bigger number is more than a smaller number ! Constitutional dignitaries in India have been candidates who were being neutered from active politics. It was a dignified retirement. To be ‘kicked up’ before fading out. Toadies were the preferred species but always put together of the best tack and gear. They carried themselves with an empty feudal grandeur and they were there in the first place because someone exalted had done the anointing. Those days seem to be gone. Toadies, they still may be but increasingly disparate considerations are leading to such appointments. It is no inspiration that an opposition recommended candidate may eventually become the consensus choice. It is not democratic sobriety that election to this office won’t divide the ground between an effete government and the opposition circus like a fissure in the earth that may take two neighbours a mile apart. Quetelet asks - Why the people are not being asked if we need these exotic birds in their golden cages in the first place ? write in with your feedback to india.political.report@gmail.com

Friday, April 8, 2011

Private Equity takes substantial stakes across Indian Media

Asset management giant DE Shaw, known as much for its hedge funds as for its play on distressed assets, has struck a deal to acquire 14.16 per cent stake in NDTV Ltd that runs news channels like NDTV India and NDTV 24X7 through secondary market transactions. This is expected to be routed through shares held by two other foreign institutional investors – Merrill Lynch and Nomura.

This comes after the earlier investment in which DE Shaw had locked horns with 'Amar Ujala' over an exit option for its investment.

Singapore PE entity Temasek has a significant stake in 'Lokmat' and Warburg Pincus (till it exited completely) has a similar stake in the 'Dainik Bhaskar' group.

The PE giant Blackstone had invested Rs 225 crore in 'Jagran Holdings' which has several publications such as Dainik Jagran, I-next and City Plus under its fold.

In terms of foreign media operators Viacom runs the entire show with TV 18 bouquet of media vehicles including CNN IBN, IBN 7 and CNBC

The flood of foreign capital and foreign interest into opinion building assets is something to note….

Sunday, April 3, 2011

Travel In Style - Corrupt Class Round Trip to Mauritius & Switzerland

In Middle school a class mate who otherwise had a reputation of being a pompous ass, asked me once “ Do you know where the capital of India happens to be ?”
“New Delhi” , I answered promptly only to be told “ No its somewhere in Switzerland ha ha ha” I was neither amused nor impressed at the time but over the years there seems to be more to it than just a haha.

Like “American Agents” , “Cultural Colonialists” and other pet obsessions of the ossified leftist intellectual elite “Swiss Bank accounts” were much spoken of but little understood

But the hate object has become a multi headed hydra and capital re-routing has trumped the unimaginative capital flight. What is more, money flies first class or chartered and it is mostly a round trip. This opacity is something which is now reaching proportions that threaten the existence and development of a free, fair and competitive private sector.

The other day, a taxi driver questioned me eagerly with reference to the massive amounts being quoted in the 2G scam. His query was simple that if a crore of Rupees is enough to stuff two large suitcases. Where is the luggage room in Lutyen’s Delhi ?

We have no understanding of how such massive amounts are salted away or re-deployed without trace .That foreign destinations with poor governance practices have become a favoured point of arrival for dirty money is not surprising but the complicity (or at least silence) of the financial policy makers in allowing its re routing has given healthier returns to the corrupt .

My argument is that all this talk of Swiss account details etc is a distraction which is being conveniently played up. This is like a bad Bollywood script hangover from the 70’s . Can you imagine a dialogue in today’s blockbuster that says “Main Bees lakh ka sona Versova beach pe laa raha hun”. Something similar here. With a booming economy like only one other place in the world, India’s corrupt want their returns at Mutual Fund rates and equally tax exempt why would they keep it in Europe where the only banking department busy is the one dealing with bounced cheques ? The money has to come back here.

The real enablers are secure tax havens and the inflow participates nakedly via current and capital account. The modus operandi is never investigated. Think Why .
Now comes the really scary part. There is a very strong possibility that re-routed ill begotten wealth is provided with a policy cushioning since there is preferential treatment in select sectors for FDI. The so called Foreign investment is legitimately alien simply because it originates abroad.

What are the mechanisms of bank transferences and how does the under / over invoicing happen ? Is there a scrutiny of remittances ? Are all CAG observations followed through into personal finances of persons involved in executive authority ?
What is our reach into not just Switzerland but also the Isle of Man, Jersey, Liechtenstein, Singapore, Russia ,Mauritius, Cyprus Dubai etc. Why is a banking system allowed insulation even though it is the major conduit of investments ? Is it not in national interest to be able to know, if needed ?

In Wall Street – Money Never Sleeps , Godon Gekko says “Money is the bitch that never sleeps. She keeps one eye open at night, watching you, and if you don’t pay close attention one day you'll wake up, and she'll be gone”

Where to ? That is the question I am asking.

Thursday, March 31, 2011

Hey Ram !

The White Anglo Saxon Protestant elites have always had a very purposeful but academic approach to destroying icons of the rest of humanity.

It is no longer Imperialistic propaganda, I suppose, but to destroy self respect amongst the shoppers in a ‘new market’ means only your own labels will be worthy of purchase at irrationally high prices. That is why an adoring shopper community exists in the form of a Commonwealth and a Francophone Africa.

The members of this tribe of paid reviewers, pontificators and ‘objective’ academicians have chosen to exclusively pick the most controversial parts, sans context and sine caveat.

Gandhi never claimed to be a paragon of virtues.

His life is story of two struggles – One against the British Imperialists and the other within himself against his mortal limitations. But when the slanderers play up the bits about Gandhi's sexual experiments they smartly exclude the fact that they were, in his judgment, tests of his personal vow of celibacy.

Gandhi was a naturalist who felt salt aggravates the sexual desires but their problem is that he gave the British rulers hypertension when he cut salt revenues in their diet of greed.

Say what you like about Gandhi, his report card is one of distinction. A sum greater than its parts.


Was Gandhi bi-sexual? Hmm -- well that's a new one. What I don’t get is how that is relevant to what he accomplished? One can see that to slander a major divinity of the Indian Pantheon (our deification kept aside for a moment) will serve to make Indians feel small. And to make them feel small is vastly profitable.

My argument is that there continues to be a purposeful attempt to slander, demonize or trivialize Asian and African heroes be it Gandhi, Mao, Nkrumah, Sukarno or Nasser. One was a murderer, another a garrulous drunk, one didn’t brush his teeth and yet another one was a debauch and so on.

The nub of the issue is how Gandhi managed to appeal to so many and how did he become such a central figure in the Indian independence struggle ? Well we will create scandal now if we couldn’t dare do it when the man was alive seems to be the driving motive. Hence wide publicity to the fact that he had amorous references to Vaseline in his letters to a German Jewish Bodybuilder . Of course that is decidedly a more engaging fact and a huge window to his personality. Low Trash !

Gandhi was a human being replete with flaws. In a sense he was a proud accomplishment of the Industrial revolution - A silent revolution machine which , with lesser effort , produced vast effects . The true Western Oligarchs hate him because he beat them at their own game. So when he refers to Kaffirs it is concluded that he was a racist but no one is questioning the system that kept apartheid alive till the end of this Millennium. No one ever conducted an inquiry into the prime collaborators who aided and perpetuated British loot in India.

Gandhi was a doer not an adapter. He was a perpetual learner through the course of his life. His humility, truthfulness and belief in non-violence are indisputable.
I am sure these academicians will discover that Einstein too had some deep Freudian motivations to say "Generations to come will scarcely believe that such a one as this in flesh and blood ever walked upon this earth."

Alas, the Western dons choose to only talk of the flesh

Sunday, August 23, 2009

Family sounds Familiar ?

" Turning and turning in the widening gyre
The falcon cannot hear the falconer;
Things fall apart; the centre cannot hold;
Mere anarchy is loosed upon the world,
------------
The best lack all conviction, while the worst
Are full of passionate intensity "


Yeats could have had the present day state of affairs within the BJP in his mind when he wrote these lines. Indeed, the locus has become unidentifiable.

Quetelet says, a thousand Stalinist purges and a country full of Gulags will not solve the BJPs problem. For it is not an issue of ideological purity, cadre motivation or alignment. It is more elemental than that...

The BJP is in utter chaos because it does not have a first family. Since there is no family there is no interest in perpetuating the party and keeping it in power. In the absence of this family, there are only individuals power hungry individuals.

Perverse (and sad) though the argument may be, it is entirely true and Quetelet believes that the truth is the only substrate on which politics can lead to power.

The BJP needs to subscribe more affirmatively to the theoretical and practical reality that a political formation in a democracy has to ‘sell’ itself to the voters. Therefore positioning is as important as advertising – i.e.- Who am I (or Who are We) is not more important than Why Buy Me (Or Why vote for us in this case). A party in the electoral fray will have to modify the voter’s current frame of reference by increasing the salience of that benefit which it is best capable of presenting to her/him. Since a family grows, evolves and perpetuates itself, it can control its positioning as a political brand much better than a consortium of individuals.

The persuasiveness of an appeal to the voter finds sharper cut through with a living family. Not for nothing has the family survived as the core unit of society, business even crime !!

To twist up a famous quote from Leo Tolstoy :

Happy (parties) are all alike; every unhappy ( party ) (lacks a family) of its own.

Wednesday, August 19, 2009

Jinnah Jugular Jaswant

Mr Jaswant Singh was an articulate ‘Vajpayee courtier’ who rose to cabinet positions in his government.

He has written books and continues to write. They are important mostly because of ‘who’ has written them rather than what has been written.

Now , at last, he seems to have qualified on both counts.

Alas, what he wrote is also important because of who he is.

Jinnah – India, Independence, Partition, cost Jaswant Singh his primary membership of the Bhartiya Janata Party.

Quetelet says, it ought to hardly matter to him or to the party , least of all to the country. It is only of interest to illustrate a case of an entire political formation reading the mood of the country so incorrectly and being stubborn in holding on to its erroneous conclusions.

This is, prima facie, a move that reflects the primacy of the most hard-line elements within the party. They are rumored to be on the ascendant since the party’s recent parliamentary election defeat.

It is one more instance of ‘political management by entropy’ so typical of the BJP nowadays. It seems to be in deep disarray, catalysed by the infighting since the May parliamentary elections when it was reduced to 116 seats, its worst performance in years.

Quetelet says that ideological purity and political necessity weigh in the balance . The BJP needs to get itself to the centre but it seems to be drifting to the right.

The BJP top brass is in the Chintan Baithak to ponder on why they have reached where they are and how to become more electable and appealing .

Will book bashing take them there ?

Saturday, August 15, 2009

No need for Raje- sthan

Vasundhara Raje Scindia is a non entity in Indian Politics of the moment.

No matter how things shape out she is likely to be on a backburner for at least half a decade. For someone who was so intoxicated with power, it must hurt . We can see the withdrawl symptoms.

Even within the BJP, Rajasthan as a state is hardly on the top right quadrant of priority and importance. She flourished in part because of her ability to manage New Delhi and her backwater state. But now that the BJP has only the backwaters to paddle, all hell is breaking loose .

The constitution of India recognizes no such thing as a Political party. However, politics in India has crystallised thus. Those who control the party, get to be in Government at the helm of affairs when their political formation gets the mandate.


Vasundhara Raje did more damage to the BJP in Rajasthan than any other person(s).


Arrogant, imperious, megalomaniacal..the synonyms will run out and yet not manage to describe her overbearing style that reduced the party apparatus to naught. She perhaps never had ideological moorings or any idealism, but it was her feudal temperament that did so much more damage to her cadre than to her self.


Why did this degeneration take place? Why did the party make no effort to arrest the decline ?

Consider :

- Terror attacks in Jaipur - Any responsibility in the state administration ?
- Farmers shot dead like dogs in in Ganga nagar and Ghadsana -Any prosecutions ?
- Caste tensions across the state -What was done besides deal making ?
- Alleged land grabbing by private interests. Could we probe the benefactors ?
- Complete abandonment of official authority to extra constitutional authorities who played their innings by their own rules…..all of these things are in the public domain.


She demanded deference, was surrounded by hangers-on, crony business men, glitterati.

Rajasthan was party land , the kind that happens after a fashion show !!.

She thrived / survived because of patronage by Vajpayee and Advani, old time associates of her Mother, the Rajmata. She has now been reduced to petty antics to cling on to whatever little status she has as 'Leader (!) of the Opposition (!!)

It is not worthy of featuring on Indian Political radar but is a fit case to sample from source and analyse the degenration and fractal feudal monopolisation of ' the party with a difference' - Now, 'A party with (obvious) differences' !!!

Monday, August 10, 2009

Proactively tackling Swine Flu

With three more swine flu deaths in the space of a day, and many more cases streaming in from across the country, India is suddenly staring at the reality that the world has been preparing for since April 2009

The Centre, as well as the state governments, seem to be pressing the accelerator to tackle a deteriorating situation and contain the growing panic as fresh cases were reported from places like Delhi, Chennai, Goa and even Jaipur, while a few continued to battle for their lives in Mumbai and Pune.

This is a pandemic that WHO has worked with national Governments to tackle. It is unlikely that any Governmental action could have prevented its occurance in India but :

Why does it take a few hundred established cases to launch a website ?

Why does it take fatalities to add screening centers ?

Why , in the case of a pandemic, do we need to classify Government hospitals and private hospitals and the responsibilities attached to the respective status types ?

Why are simple facts not published every single day for public consumption ?

Why can daily briefings not happen in every Primary Health center ?

Why is it seeming like no one has been proactive here ? Why has the ramp up not happened on a war footing ?

Better late than never.

Write to india.political.report@gmail.com

Saturday, August 8, 2009

Drought declared by the Doctor

On Saturday, 8th August,2009, the Prime Minister Dr. Manmohan Singh said there was drought in 141 districts in the country and people must be prepared for a further rise in prices. There is a shortfall of six million hectares under paddy, this kharif season, owing to a deficient southwest monsoon.

So it’s official . The government has admitted to drought, price rise and a specific shortfall in kharif sowing.

Addressing a meeting of the State Chief Secretaries, Dr. Singh assured the states of the Centre’s full support for tackling drought. The States should quickly send detailed memoranda for assistance under the Calamity Relief Fund or the National Calamity Contingency Fund, he declared.

A meeting of all state Chief Secretaries is anyways a wasteful indulgence where also only doubt and lack of clarity has been displayed. What have they been told which could not have been guessed in their respective state capitals or indeed communicated over phone, fax or file ?

The response is neither proactive nor reactive. The PM’s expression of concern over drought conditions on August 8th is a bit too little and way too late.

Asking people to be prepared and alluding to calamity relief is bemusing.

Dr Singh preached to the choir declaring that “in no case should we allow citizens to go hungry,” and if need be, the government would take strong measures and intervene in the market. No news on what those could be. “We are helped by the fact that there were adequate food stocks owing to record production and procurement of foodgrains in 2007-08 and 2008-09.” he stated and that “We expect the State governments to intervene in procurement and act against hoarders.”

Dr. Singh wanted the States to operate a contingency plan for crops, drinking water, fodder, human and animal health and keep a close watch on food grain prices.

Qu says that from the earliest origin of government in this country, through successive reigns, occurrence of drought and resulting famine has been proactively monitored and actions taken

All forms of government in this country, even the dictatorial ones, had been receptive to the purpose of mitigating drought & alleviating suffering. Always, attempts were made to put in place a blue print and a well thought out cascading contingency plan.

For a 21st century Prime Minister aided by Super computers , latest Met technologies and global Information access to make pronouncements of this nature seems like a old village Mukhiya advising his community to trek over the hill in an attempt to survive.

Consider :

- Contingency scenarios , famine relief works scope and schedule , community water resources investments - Where is the master plan?

- Along with this prophecy of calamity, was it not incumbent upon the PM to disclose to the nation at least 10 concrete measures which are anyhow fairly ritualistic rather than bemoan lack of budget utilization etc and merely press the panic button?

- That this drought was anticipated is a matter of record. Mr Pawar had , from London, decided that it was enough of a rainy condition to call off the match (pun intended !) and left the prognosis to his lethargic mandarins. When exactly did it dawn upon the rulers that we were dry and desperate?

Finally, Union Agriculture and Food Minister Sharad Pawar blamed hoarding and speculation in the market for the “sudden” spurt in the prices of essential commodities, particularly pulses. He said that unless the States took action, the Centre would not be able to control the prices. We need effective response, not a lesson in Civics !!

Write to india.political.report@gmail.com

Thursday, August 6, 2009

Indian Anari (The poor Indian Amateur)

Government in India seems to have got off its knees after the departure of Mrs Clinton.

Wellesley’s subsidiary alliance will seem cozy when compared to the status that the Americans now reserve for us.

Some questions to consider .

- Did India agree on a formulation on 'climate change', essentially agreeing to a two-degree rise cap on global temperatures from the pre-industrial era?

- The final preparatory meeting for the Doha Round of trade negotiations under the auspices of the World Trade Organisation (WTO) will be held in India, where it is claimed that India will ensure that finally an agreement will be reached ?? why the change ??

- And at Shame Shame…..Sharm el Sheikh our Prime Minister formally delinked terrorism from an all-encompassing bilateral dialogue. Who authorized this ?
It appears that the PM believes he is an ‘American style’ president and his new government /administration has decided to restate policy position on national and international issues, without notice or debate and consensus

Hillary Clinton's clear agenda was to open up the Indian market for US exports, particularly on technology areas; thus the proposal for two nuclear power plants during this visit. What did India get in return ?

As this PMO asserts itself over each facet of governance, in an undemocratic matter, unfettered by political considerations and minding more the American constituency than its (absent) Indian one is forced to think of the Indian common man “Sab kucch seekha hamney Na seekhi hoshiyari; sach hai duniya waalon ki hum hai Anari “

Sunday, July 19, 2009

On the Budget - Urban Orphans

We all know that a section of a bridge under construction for the Delhi Metro collapsed recently.

We know that Mumbai has a huge issue of water logging every time heavy rainfall coincides with the High Tide.

Now :

- Who is the Mayor of Delhi ? Of Mumbai ?

- What is the Delhi /Mumbai /Bangalore /Chennai progress plan vs Budget ? Is there a commonly understood vision that has been articulated in the past ?

Politically, Urban India is orphaned. Economically, it can’t avoid being at the center stage.

Urban Indians do not represent a constituency. Else the National Rural Employment Guarantee Act (NREGA), which will spend Rs 39,000 crore in giving every Ruralite a chance to earn would not be specified as ' Rural' .

Traditionally and more so since economic liberalization, Urban India is the only route to future growth. This is where we see economic activity, creation of jobs, greater private investments. Urbanites pay taxes.

- Where is a 360-degree plan for our 6 metros ?

- Why is no one stating plans for power, ports, highways and airports in a city specific manner?


At least 60% of our gross domestic product comes from urban India; it houses 30% of our people.

- Why can we not have a vision to create 6 more metros in the next 30 years ? Why has urbanization been a “Chandigarh in limbo” most of the time
?

Consider :

- Are we thinking and funding affordable housing ?

- Why are we not seeing the potential of bringing in public-private partnership in urban infrastructure development?


The first Budget of the new Union government does not seem to indicate that they see their clear mandate as a clear Urban India mandate too.

Rome was not built in a day, but on a day they may have budgeted for it to start !!

Thursday, July 16, 2009

On the Budget - Aam Aadmi Khas masley (Common Man, Uncommon Issues)

Quetelet stands for the ‘average’ person. In India, politically this is referred to as the agenda for the ‘Aam Aadmi” . What we see, budget come and gone, is that today the ‘aam admi’ is confronting rising food prices, high rents, lack of adequate water and power and declining incomes.

Inflation as measured by the WPI has turned negative but inflation measured by the Consumer Price Index is still high and its emphasis is on food, a large part of the ‘aam aadmi’s’ expenditure.

There are fears of job losses and if a person is in business, there is a fear of slack business and slow turnover. The pace of manufacturing growth has been alarmingly slow.

What about the private investment so critical for industrial growth ?

If private investment is clogged, how can industrial production be competitive?

How can private investment rush in the current, interest rates scenario ?

If the government is going to go in for heavy borrowings as outlined in the Budget (fiscal deficit at 6.8 per cent), what is to allay the fear is that interest rates would rise by 1 percentage point ?

There is a serious threat of rainfall deficit this year in many wheat growing areas that could lead to high prices. The government has already banned wheat exports. What will the macro economy look like if there is a drought ?

Almost all G8 countries are resorting to protectionism and are imposing higher taxes on imports. The Obama Administration is discriminating against US companies that are outsourcing their business processes to countries like India. What is our position on this ?

In the case of Indian industry, many cheap imports, especially from China, are hurting our own manufactures but duties have not been raised. For example raising the duty on edible oil imports would have brought in a lot of revenue and would have protected oil seed farmers also. Who will satisfy the stake holders in this regard ?

The government is fond of putting more money on schemes which have fancy names but no one knows whether they are wholly successful .Even in the case of NREGA there is a fear that we are creating a dole dependent constituency. Why not create and enable them to have real income generating assets ?

Most small enterprises have to pay high interest rates on borrowings to run their businesses and the conditions of work are often quite appalling and the workers are routinely paid below minimum wages.

On health, most people do not need to crowd city hospitals if primary health care was available in the villages or small towns. What is the confidence in making a difference there in a hurry ?

Which school does the aam aadmi’s kids go to ? What are the assets those institutions have ?

The power situation is always a critical element in India’s growth. There has been a huge gap between the power requirement and its generation and supply — the government fell short by 70 per cent of the target to set up new power plants in 2008-09 and there are frequent voltage fluctuations and power cuts. Delhi and Bombay are no exceptions .Who will correct and by when ?

Unfortunately, while issues seem clear the policies are skewed by politics.
India is fortunately not in a deep crisis situation like the western nations — widely acknowledged now by the World Bank and the IMF, and even if there are no foreign investment inflows, our own high savings rate at 38 per cent (of the GDP) can sustain growth of about 7 to 8 per cent.

What remains important is to encourage private initiative and investment and the proper implementation of projects funded by public spending.

Wednesday, July 15, 2009

Karat & Stick Policy

" Once upon a time, there was a party called the Communist Party of India (Marxist)..."

Very soon that is how we will read the articles on the CPM

Almost there!

Today its parliamentary strength is at the lowest since the party's formation in 1964. It has, in a very Stalinist posture, decided NOT to reveal any conclusions on the reasons why they had such a pathetic showing despite being the powers behind the scene in the previous Government for almost 4 out of its 5 years in power.

Instead, they seem even more confused on sorting out the internecine warfare in its Kerala unit. That, the birthplace of threw communist movement in India.

The fight between two groups, one headed by the state party secretary, Pinarayi Vijayan, and the other by the chief minister, V S Achuthanandan, has paralysed administration in the state and contributed to the Left Front's defeat in the Lok Sabha polls.

To seem effective Mr Prakash Karat, this week, after an unusual two-day session to discuss this factionalism in Kerala, chose to expel the Chief Minsiter, a founding leader of the organisation, from the party's highest decision-making body, the politburo.

However, Vijayan has been allowed to continue as state chief even though he faces a CBI case over his alleged role in the multi-crore SNC Lavalin corruption case.

Truly Karat and Stick.

A few answers needed :

Is it acute schizophrenia ?

Why has a leader been expelled from the Apex party forum yet heads the state Government ?

Why is this party of the masses (?) that apparently swears by probity in public office defending a leader facing corruption charges ??



If at all, how will they account for the consequences and who will be accountable?

Tuesday, July 14, 2009

On the Budget - Budge It !!

The more things change, the more they remain the same...

India watchers could well make this conclusion going by the budget that Mr. Pranab Mukerjee presented.

Going by the finance ministry’s own Economic Survey, published a few days prior by its economic advisers there is a lot that has been left ‘not done’. The survey had presented a bold wish-list of reforms, including divestment of minority stakes in PSUs, easing restrictions on foreign direct investment (FDI); and even rethinking of labour laws.

What was seen was good old ‘tinkering’. No FDI caps were lifted, not in retail, not in civil aviation, not in Insurance.

What was of universal concern was the outcome that the central government’s deficit would widen to 6.8% of GDP in the year to March 2010. Add to it the state Government indebtedness and we will see the deficit in low double digits.

With the communists gone, the situation is similar to that of a recovering patient who has been in a cast for a long time. When the cast is cut off, lo and behold, it discovers it has forgotten to walk. It then needs to relearn walking. When it looks around, it discovers that many of the celebrated sprinters are suffering from multiple fractures. By all accounts India has weathered the global recession better than most. Our GDP grew by 5.8% in the last quarter of 2008, and in MQ of 2009. Much of it spurred by Government directed spending. It won rich dividends in terms of a electoral victory. The government wants to dole out more.

Our finances are precarious; debt approaches 80-85% of GDP. Are we recognizing that?

Handing out generous terms to Govt employees and enhancing the ear marked funds for disbursal under the National Rural Employment Guarantee Scheme will exacerbate the situation. Why are we convinced this is so required ?

Only the promise to introduce a nationwide goods and services tax (GST) by April 2010 is the bright spot. Unfortunately, the GST requires the all states to be on-board, and they guard their revenue-raising powers jealously. India’s tax regime on spirits is one case in point. Currently center-state powers are thus allocated that it bars states from taxing services, and prevents the central government taxing goods beyond the point of manufacture.

We need 'artha' to be the 'mool' of 'rajasya' not the other way around !!

Monday, July 13, 2009

Talent -Privately in Public domain

In the last few days Mr. Nandan Nilekeni, one of the founders of Infosys and hitherto an Officer of that Corporation joined the UID mission as Chief with the status of a Cabinet Minister while Mr. E Sreedharan, CEO of Delhi Metro Rail Corporation resigned after owning moral responsibility for a tragedy where five people lost their lives when a bridge under construction in South Delhi collapsed.

It is appropriate to look at the admission and retention of talent in this context.

Talent has to operate within the system. Government is ultimately only an operationalising arm of the will of the republic. It is a system. E Sreedharan has proved one can deliver the goods; all it calls for is commitment, caliber, conviction and courage.

What we refer to as The Government in India stands for a massive but slow and effete permanent executive and an aggressive, temporary and increasingly dominant political executive, i.e. those who carry out and implement policy and those who make it.

It has been repeated ad-nauseam that pliant babus have become willing accomplices at the hands of self-seeking netas thus corrupting the administration, killing bureaucratic initiative and jeopardizing the healthy and progressive growth of the larger India changing /India strengthening agenda.

In a country where cadre sensitivity of the bureaucracy is legendary it is of educational value to see how far the government can tap the talent available in the private sector to promote good governance.

In India, a government job is a slow train. The brute majority of Government personnel are the legendary ICS – No , not the Indian Civil Service, but the more ubiquitous and ultimately more powerful Indian Corridor Service i.e. the peons, the Lower and Upper divisional clerks and the section staff. Like the many coupes of a long train, they are classified as Class I, II, III or IV

In the past fifteen years or so, as the economy opened up, there was a flow of talent from the public to the private sector. It was easy picking for the private sector; they homed in on the experienced but poorly paid talent in the public sector. We saw this as the monopolies dissolved in commercial banking, insurance, power, steel, Oil, media, telecom etc

But not so much in the higher reaches of the civil service. Indeed, from time to time, senior civil servants have left government service to join the private sector and MNCs but by and large the 400 odd civil servants who run the show have been immune to cross-sector movements. Attrition would not rate a percentage point, one can guesstimate.


Admission of talent is not about a single person, it is not about admitting individuals. In essence, the culture of administration has to change. It is ultimately about the system. Consider :

Will we admit talent to only where those in power feel urgent and specific attention is required? On Missionary terms ?

How are the credentials vetted?

How are terms of reference decided for infusion of private individuals?

Private Interests in public domain who certifies caliber ?

What about infusion of external talent in the ‘commanding heights’ of the economy?

Why not a revolving door for the executive cadre at the Navratnas?

Can we consider the same in Policy Advisory Services, Governmental programs--Why not in the social sector? Customs, Taxation, Economic Diplomacy?

Why not every where and any where?

Unless we want to make this a case of voluntary sanyas on part of those who get admitted won’t we need to fix remuneration that is competitive enough to attract and more importantly retain talent?

Till the system is adaptive, such talent ingress and egress will continue to be just that : A "Private' decision in public domain.

Saturday, April 18, 2009

Distinction, Debut, Discourse, Disaster, Discpline

In our democracy, some unique Distinctions:

1. Unlike the western democracies, the less privileged sections of Indian society are enamoured with the electoral process and their voting percentages are substantially higher.

2. The smaller parties have more political and ideological maneuverability when compared to the larger national parties

3. The population of the voting constituents tends to increase when we go from national to state to municipal /panchayat elections. Exactly the opposite happens in the western democracies where local governance suffers from apathy.

-- The post liberalization generation comes of age -- Debut

This is the first election where those who were born in the year 1991 will have the vote. They have lived their entire life in a ‘liberalised’ economy. They have grown up believing that in India all is well and everything is possible to achieve. So they will vote and we shall see what that throws up.

-- Hardly can you call this an election for the parliament -- Discourse

This election aims to elect a parliament but the role of parliament itself has never been more diminished than in the recent past. Abysmal number of days in session, virtual absence of debate and passage of almost all major bills after noisy and chaotic scenes instead of any discussion , Sting /Scam money being shown on live TV inside the Lok Sabha and parliamentarians being accused of and implicated in taking money for raising questions as well as for body trafficking . Phew.

-- It has been sanctified as a Presidential contest by parties which have virtually no internal democracy --Disaster

As if to drive the last nail, instead of alleviating the pain, this election has become LK Advani vs. Manmohan Singh (proxy Rahul Gandhi). Who has time for party in parliament reviews in the era of multi party kaleidoscopic coalitions? When there is virtually no internal democracy in the political party structure, how do you expect a higher calling for democratic values into the houses of parliament?

--When the code is bigger than the conduct –- Discipline

Article 324 of the constitution vests many powers with the Election Commission and makes it the responsibility of the Election Commission to be pro-active in superintending, directing & controlling the elections with the powers vested in it. But the implementation and enforcement of the code and the spirit of it are slightly different matters!!

Hate speeches, communalization of rhetoric, personal attacks, calls for violent action etc are great for churning news but the spirit of the elections are not impacted by a few instances. The bigger challenges, unaddressed as they are, include election finance, role of state sponsorship in the political process etc. Meanwhile, a film star turned parvenu politician has said things about a state CM and the show goes on…….

Write in to me at india.political.report@gmail.com

Friday, April 17, 2009

Gates Gets it

The American Defense Secretary has shown the way with his 2010 budget.

If the Americans are saying Aye to managing the short term and investing behind equipping themselves to fight pirates, militias and fanatics in localized skirmishes while balancing their allocations to the conventional Big War with Big enemy, we say the rest of the world ought to follow.

Especially, India. We can ill afford to ignore it and persist with delusional tendencies.

Some parts of the Gates plan ought to be blindly copied e.g.

- Special forces to combat the terrorist threat,

- Strengthening paramilitary forces,

- Revisiting specific equipment needs for the changed nature of combat,

- Prioritizing cyber defense,

- Localized logistics infrastructure instead of megalithic apparatus

In other words, unconventional investments for unconventional warfare.

We need a panchayat plan for grass roots preparedness not a parliamentary plan for pretentious super power day dreaming. Naxalites don’t have tank squadrons and suicidal terrorists cannot be detected on sophisticated radar. We need first aid before we get the MRI machines.

Thursday, April 16, 2009

Naxalites indoors, Taliban at the door

A few questions -

- If 150 out of 600 districts in India are Naxalite ridden, what has participative democracy done for those who are violently wrecking the status quo? Who is answerable?

- If we see Naxalite insurgency as one of the main concerns to India's peace and progress why is there such asymmetrical response even in contiguous states e.g. Orissa and Chhattisgarh?

- If a handful of violent criminals can strike at will, why is an aircraft carrier a priority over police modernisation ?

- Is Law and order as a state subject a holy cow?

- Is there any national policy on disaffection and disruptive extremism within India? how many more examples of utter chaos will we need for our mass media to focus on heartland India rather than Lahore and Swat ?

Wednesday, April 15, 2009

The Pawar Permutations

The original (3×3×3) Rubik's Cube has eight corners and twelve edges. There are 8! (40,320) ways to arrange the corner cubes. Seven can be oriented independently, and the orientation of the eighth depends on the preceding seven, giving 37 (2,187) possibilities. There are 12! /2 (239,500,800) ways to arrange the edges, since an odd permutation of the corners implies an odd permutation of the edges as well. Eleven edges can be flipped independently, with the flip of the twelfth depending on the preceding ones, giving 211 (2,048) possibilities

There are exactly 43,252,003,274,489,856,000 permutations, which is approximately forty-three quintillion. So, if every permutation of a 57-millimeter Rubik's Cube were lined up end to end, it would stretch out approximately 261 light years. Alternatively, if laid out on the ground, this is enough to cover the earth with 273 layers of cubes, recognizing the fact that the radius of the earth sphere increases by 57 mm with each layer of cubes.

The preceding figure is limited to permutations that can be reached solely by turning the sides of the cube. If one considers permutations reached through disassembly of the cube, the number becomes twelve times as large.

If you grasped the above, you may be eligible to try to understand the possibilities in the politics of Mr Sharad Pawar. Consider what his astute political mind is capable of. He (and therefore the NCP) has made pivoting arrangements on each constituent cube . He is on record to say that he does not believe in political untouchability. Thus, he is open to doing business, on his terms, with any and every political formation and politician. Layer this with an unrivalled depth of experience and an ability to deliver the political goods and you may begin to fathom the limitless possibilities.

In the eventuality that there is “ come one come all “ flavour post election, this is one man who has probably worked out the 6 solid facings that are eventually possible.

In case there are a couple that don’t turn, colour blindness may legitimately become a qualification in Indian Politics