Family sounds Familiar ?

" Turning and turning in the widening gyre
The falcon cannot hear the falconer;
Things fall apart; the centre cannot hold;
Mere anarchy is loosed upon the world,
------------
The best lack all conviction, while the worst
Are full of passionate intensity "


Yeats could have had the present day state of affairs within the BJP in his mind when he wrote these lines. Indeed, the locus has become unidentifiable.

Quetelet says, a thousand Stalinist purges and a country full of Gulags will not solve the BJPs problem. For it is not an issue of ideological purity, cadre motivation or alignment. It is more elemental than that...

The BJP is in utter chaos because it does not have a first family. Since there is no family there is no interest in perpetuating the party and keeping it in power. In the absence of this family, there are only individuals power hungry individuals.

Perverse (and sad) though the argument may be, it is entirely true and Quetelet believes that the truth is the only substrate on which politics can lead to power.

The BJP needs to subscribe more affirmatively to the theoretical and practical reality that a political formation in a democracy has to ‘sell’ itself to the voters. Therefore positioning is as important as advertising – i.e.- Who am I (or Who are We) is not more important than Why Buy Me (Or Why vote for us in this case). A party in the electoral fray will have to modify the voter’s current frame of reference by increasing the salience of that benefit which it is best capable of presenting to her/him. Since a family grows, evolves and perpetuates itself, it can control its positioning as a political brand much better than a consortium of individuals.

The persuasiveness of an appeal to the voter finds sharper cut through with a living family. Not for nothing has the family survived as the core unit of society, business even crime !!

To twist up a famous quote from Leo Tolstoy :

Happy (parties) are all alike; every unhappy ( party ) (lacks a family) of its own.

Jinnah Jugular Jaswant

Mr Jaswant Singh was an articulate ‘Vajpayee courtier’ who rose to cabinet positions in his government.

He has written books and continues to write. They are important mostly because of ‘who’ has written them rather than what has been written.

Now , at last, he seems to have qualified on both counts.

Alas, what he wrote is also important because of who he is.

Jinnah – India, Independence, Partition, cost Jaswant Singh his primary membership of the Bhartiya Janata Party.

Quetelet says, it ought to hardly matter to him or to the party , least of all to the country. It is only of interest to illustrate a case of an entire political formation reading the mood of the country so incorrectly and being stubborn in holding on to its erroneous conclusions.

This is, prima facie, a move that reflects the primacy of the most hard-line elements within the party. They are rumored to be on the ascendant since the party’s recent parliamentary election defeat.

It is one more instance of ‘political management by entropy’ so typical of the BJP nowadays. It seems to be in deep disarray, catalysed by the infighting since the May parliamentary elections when it was reduced to 116 seats, its worst performance in years.

Quetelet says that ideological purity and political necessity weigh in the balance . The BJP needs to get itself to the centre but it seems to be drifting to the right.

The BJP top brass is in the Chintan Baithak to ponder on why they have reached where they are and how to become more electable and appealing .

Will book bashing take them there ?

No need for Raje- sthan

Vasundhara Raje Scindia is a non entity in Indian Politics of the moment.

No matter how things shape out she is likely to be on a backburner for at least half a decade. For someone who was so intoxicated with power, it must hurt . We can see the withdrawl symptoms.

Even within the BJP, Rajasthan as a state is hardly on the top right quadrant of priority and importance. She flourished in part because of her ability to manage New Delhi and her backwater state. But now that the BJP has only the backwaters to paddle, all hell is breaking loose .

The constitution of India recognizes no such thing as a Political party. However, politics in India has crystallised thus. Those who control the party, get to be in Government at the helm of affairs when their political formation gets the mandate.

Vasundhara Raje did more damage to the BJP in Rajasthan than any other person(s).

Arrogant, imperious, megalomaniacal..the synonyms will run out and yet not manage to describe her overbearing style that reduced the party apparatus to naught. She perhaps never had ideological moorings or any idealism, but it was her feudal temperament that did so much more damage to her cadre than to her self.

Why did this degeneration take place? Why did the party make no effort to arrest the decline ?

Consider :

- Terror attacks in Jaipur - Any responsibility in the state administration ?
- Farmers shot dead like dogs in in Ganga nagar and Ghadsana -Any prosecutions ?
- Caste tensions across the state -What was done besides deal making ?
- Alleged land grabbing by private interests. Could we probe the benefactors ?
- Complete abandonment of official authority to extra constitutional authorities who played their innings by their own rules…..all of these things are in the public domain.

She demanded deference, was surrounded by hangers-on, crony business men, glitterati.

Rajasthan was party land , the kind that happens after a fashion show !!.

She thrived / survived because of patronage by Vajpayee and Advani, old time associates of her Mother, the Rajmata. She has now been reduced to petty antics to cling on to whatever little status she has as 'Leader (!) of the Opposition (!!)

It is not worthy of featuring on Indian Political radar but is a fit case to sample from source and analyse the degenration and fractal feudal monopolisation of ' the party with a difference' - Now, 'A party with (obvious) differences' !!!

What's the Question ?

Can the political history of India serve as a context for probability mapping of the likely post poll arrangements and alliances?

Can there be a definitive list of sources to refer to in the effort to articulate plausible and viable scenarios?

Alexis Carrel said “A few observations and much reasoning lead to error; many observations and a little reasoning to truth”

Analysis of a likely outcome must anchor its hypothesis in some ‘greater likelihood’. That seems remote and yet blindingly obvious at the same time. Our political captains equivocate, obfuscate and dissimulate with near perfection “QUI NESCIT DISSIMULAR, NESCIT REGNARE’

So what does on go by? For one, asking questions may help.

- Why is Mr LK Advani concerned about ‘Overconfidence’ ?

How many are the swing states?
Who as individual satraps are likely to inspire confidence?
Where from this surge of confidence?
Who has committed?

- Can one conclude that the 3rd and 4th front are compartments in the same train headed to no destination or is it that the LJP+RJD+SP combine is just as much about pragmatic politics as it is about posturing ?

- Are all parties, bar none, essentially viewing post poll alliances as maneuvers to be able to regroup when required simply in order to exclude Mayawati & the BSP from any ruling coalition? Is she the common threat ?

- What is the closest equivalent to the Samyukt Vidhayak Dal experiment of the 1960’s ? Can the old Saffronites come back to a larger Janata coalition ? why ? why not ?