We all know that a section of a bridge under construction for the Delhi Metro collapsed recently.
We know that Mumbai has a huge issue of water logging every time heavy rainfall coincides with the High Tide.
Now :
- Who is the Mayor of Delhi ? Of Mumbai ?
- What is the Delhi /Mumbai /Bangalore /Chennai progress plan vs Budget ? Is there a commonly understood vision that has been articulated in the past ?
Politically, Urban India is orphaned. Economically, it can’t avoid being at the center stage.
Urban Indians do not represent a constituency. Else the National Rural Employment Guarantee Act (NREGA), which will spend Rs 39,000 crore in giving every Ruralite a chance to earn would not be specified as ' Rural' .
Traditionally and more so since economic liberalization, Urban India is the only route to future growth. This is where we see economic activity, creation of jobs, greater private investments. Urbanites pay taxes.
- Where is a 360-degree plan for our 6 metros ?
- Why is no one stating plans for power, ports, highways and airports in a city specific manner?
At least 60% of our gross domestic product comes from urban India; it houses 30% of our people.
- Why can we not have a vision to create 6 more metros in the next 30 years ? Why has urbanization been a “Chandigarh in limbo” most of the time
?
Consider :
- Are we thinking and funding affordable housing ?
- Why are we not seeing the potential of bringing in public-private partnership in urban infrastructure development?
The first Budget of the new Union government does not seem to indicate that they see their clear mandate as a clear Urban India mandate too.
Rome was not built in a day, but on a day they may have budgeted for it to start !!
Sunday, July 19, 2009
Thursday, July 16, 2009
On the Budget - Aam Aadmi Khas masley (Common Man, Uncommon Issues)
Quetelet stands for the ‘average’ person. In India, politically this is referred to as the agenda for the ‘Aam Aadmi” . What we see, budget come and gone, is that today the ‘aam admi’ is confronting rising food prices, high rents, lack of adequate water and power and declining incomes.
Inflation as measured by the WPI has turned negative but inflation measured by the Consumer Price Index is still high and its emphasis is on food, a large part of the ‘aam aadmi’s’ expenditure.
There are fears of job losses and if a person is in business, there is a fear of slack business and slow turnover. The pace of manufacturing growth has been alarmingly slow.
What about the private investment so critical for industrial growth ?
If private investment is clogged, how can industrial production be competitive?
How can private investment rush in the current, interest rates scenario ?
If the government is going to go in for heavy borrowings as outlined in the Budget (fiscal deficit at 6.8 per cent), what is to allay the fear is that interest rates would rise by 1 percentage point ?
There is a serious threat of rainfall deficit this year in many wheat growing areas that could lead to high prices. The government has already banned wheat exports. What will the macro economy look like if there is a drought ?
Almost all G8 countries are resorting to protectionism and are imposing higher taxes on imports. The Obama Administration is discriminating against US companies that are outsourcing their business processes to countries like India. What is our position on this ?
In the case of Indian industry, many cheap imports, especially from China, are hurting our own manufactures but duties have not been raised. For example raising the duty on edible oil imports would have brought in a lot of revenue and would have protected oil seed farmers also. Who will satisfy the stake holders in this regard ?
The government is fond of putting more money on schemes which have fancy names but no one knows whether they are wholly successful .Even in the case of NREGA there is a fear that we are creating a dole dependent constituency. Why not create and enable them to have real income generating assets ?
Most small enterprises have to pay high interest rates on borrowings to run their businesses and the conditions of work are often quite appalling and the workers are routinely paid below minimum wages.
On health, most people do not need to crowd city hospitals if primary health care was available in the villages or small towns. What is the confidence in making a difference there in a hurry ?
Which school does the aam aadmi’s kids go to ? What are the assets those institutions have ?
The power situation is always a critical element in India’s growth. There has been a huge gap between the power requirement and its generation and supply — the government fell short by 70 per cent of the target to set up new power plants in 2008-09 and there are frequent voltage fluctuations and power cuts. Delhi and Bombay are no exceptions .Who will correct and by when ?
Unfortunately, while issues seem clear the policies are skewed by politics.
India is fortunately not in a deep crisis situation like the western nations — widely acknowledged now by the World Bank and the IMF, and even if there are no foreign investment inflows, our own high savings rate at 38 per cent (of the GDP) can sustain growth of about 7 to 8 per cent.
What remains important is to encourage private initiative and investment and the proper implementation of projects funded by public spending.
Inflation as measured by the WPI has turned negative but inflation measured by the Consumer Price Index is still high and its emphasis is on food, a large part of the ‘aam aadmi’s’ expenditure.
There are fears of job losses and if a person is in business, there is a fear of slack business and slow turnover. The pace of manufacturing growth has been alarmingly slow.
What about the private investment so critical for industrial growth ?
If private investment is clogged, how can industrial production be competitive?
How can private investment rush in the current, interest rates scenario ?
If the government is going to go in for heavy borrowings as outlined in the Budget (fiscal deficit at 6.8 per cent), what is to allay the fear is that interest rates would rise by 1 percentage point ?
There is a serious threat of rainfall deficit this year in many wheat growing areas that could lead to high prices. The government has already banned wheat exports. What will the macro economy look like if there is a drought ?
Almost all G8 countries are resorting to protectionism and are imposing higher taxes on imports. The Obama Administration is discriminating against US companies that are outsourcing their business processes to countries like India. What is our position on this ?
In the case of Indian industry, many cheap imports, especially from China, are hurting our own manufactures but duties have not been raised. For example raising the duty on edible oil imports would have brought in a lot of revenue and would have protected oil seed farmers also. Who will satisfy the stake holders in this regard ?
The government is fond of putting more money on schemes which have fancy names but no one knows whether they are wholly successful .Even in the case of NREGA there is a fear that we are creating a dole dependent constituency. Why not create and enable them to have real income generating assets ?
Most small enterprises have to pay high interest rates on borrowings to run their businesses and the conditions of work are often quite appalling and the workers are routinely paid below minimum wages.
On health, most people do not need to crowd city hospitals if primary health care was available in the villages or small towns. What is the confidence in making a difference there in a hurry ?
Which school does the aam aadmi’s kids go to ? What are the assets those institutions have ?
The power situation is always a critical element in India’s growth. There has been a huge gap between the power requirement and its generation and supply — the government fell short by 70 per cent of the target to set up new power plants in 2008-09 and there are frequent voltage fluctuations and power cuts. Delhi and Bombay are no exceptions .Who will correct and by when ?
Unfortunately, while issues seem clear the policies are skewed by politics.
India is fortunately not in a deep crisis situation like the western nations — widely acknowledged now by the World Bank and the IMF, and even if there are no foreign investment inflows, our own high savings rate at 38 per cent (of the GDP) can sustain growth of about 7 to 8 per cent.
What remains important is to encourage private initiative and investment and the proper implementation of projects funded by public spending.
Wednesday, July 15, 2009
Karat & Stick Policy
" Once upon a time, there was a party called the Communist Party of India (Marxist)..."
Very soon that is how we will read the articles on the CPM
Almost there!
Today its parliamentary strength is at the lowest since the party's formation in 1964. It has, in a very Stalinist posture, decided NOT to reveal any conclusions on the reasons why they had such a pathetic showing despite being the powers behind the scene in the previous Government for almost 4 out of its 5 years in power.
Instead, they seem even more confused on sorting out the internecine warfare in its Kerala unit. That, the birthplace of threw communist movement in India.
The fight between two groups, one headed by the state party secretary, Pinarayi Vijayan, and the other by the chief minister, V S Achuthanandan, has paralysed administration in the state and contributed to the Left Front's defeat in the Lok Sabha polls.
To seem effective Mr Prakash Karat, this week, after an unusual two-day session to discuss this factionalism in Kerala, chose to expel the Chief Minsiter, a founding leader of the organisation, from the party's highest decision-making body, the politburo.
However, Vijayan has been allowed to continue as state chief even though he faces a CBI case over his alleged role in the multi-crore SNC Lavalin corruption case.
Truly Karat and Stick.
A few answers needed :
Is it acute schizophrenia ?
Why has a leader been expelled from the Apex party forum yet heads the state Government ?
Why is this party of the masses (?) that apparently swears by probity in public office defending a leader facing corruption charges ??
If at all, how will they account for the consequences and who will be accountable?
Very soon that is how we will read the articles on the CPM
Almost there!
Today its parliamentary strength is at the lowest since the party's formation in 1964. It has, in a very Stalinist posture, decided NOT to reveal any conclusions on the reasons why they had such a pathetic showing despite being the powers behind the scene in the previous Government for almost 4 out of its 5 years in power.
Instead, they seem even more confused on sorting out the internecine warfare in its Kerala unit. That, the birthplace of threw communist movement in India.
The fight between two groups, one headed by the state party secretary, Pinarayi Vijayan, and the other by the chief minister, V S Achuthanandan, has paralysed administration in the state and contributed to the Left Front's defeat in the Lok Sabha polls.
To seem effective Mr Prakash Karat, this week, after an unusual two-day session to discuss this factionalism in Kerala, chose to expel the Chief Minsiter, a founding leader of the organisation, from the party's highest decision-making body, the politburo.
However, Vijayan has been allowed to continue as state chief even though he faces a CBI case over his alleged role in the multi-crore SNC Lavalin corruption case.
Truly Karat and Stick.
A few answers needed :
Is it acute schizophrenia ?
Why has a leader been expelled from the Apex party forum yet heads the state Government ?
Why is this party of the masses (?) that apparently swears by probity in public office defending a leader facing corruption charges ??
If at all, how will they account for the consequences and who will be accountable?
Tuesday, July 14, 2009
On the Budget - Budge It !!
The more things change, the more they remain the same...
India watchers could well make this conclusion going by the budget that Mr. Pranab Mukerjee presented.
Going by the finance ministry’s own Economic Survey, published a few days prior by its economic advisers there is a lot that has been left ‘not done’. The survey had presented a bold wish-list of reforms, including divestment of minority stakes in PSUs, easing restrictions on foreign direct investment (FDI); and even rethinking of labour laws.
What was seen was good old ‘tinkering’. No FDI caps were lifted, not in retail, not in civil aviation, not in Insurance.
What was of universal concern was the outcome that the central government’s deficit would widen to 6.8% of GDP in the year to March 2010. Add to it the state Government indebtedness and we will see the deficit in low double digits.
With the communists gone, the situation is similar to that of a recovering patient who has been in a cast for a long time. When the cast is cut off, lo and behold, it discovers it has forgotten to walk. It then needs to relearn walking. When it looks around, it discovers that many of the celebrated sprinters are suffering from multiple fractures. By all accounts India has weathered the global recession better than most. Our GDP grew by 5.8% in the last quarter of 2008, and in MQ of 2009. Much of it spurred by Government directed spending. It won rich dividends in terms of a electoral victory. The government wants to dole out more.
Our finances are precarious; debt approaches 80-85% of GDP. Are we recognizing that?
Handing out generous terms to Govt employees and enhancing the ear marked funds for disbursal under the National Rural Employment Guarantee Scheme will exacerbate the situation. Why are we convinced this is so required ?
Only the promise to introduce a nationwide goods and services tax (GST) by April 2010 is the bright spot. Unfortunately, the GST requires the all states to be on-board, and they guard their revenue-raising powers jealously. India’s tax regime on spirits is one case in point. Currently center-state powers are thus allocated that it bars states from taxing services, and prevents the central government taxing goods beyond the point of manufacture.
We need 'artha' to be the 'mool' of 'rajasya' not the other way around !!
India watchers could well make this conclusion going by the budget that Mr. Pranab Mukerjee presented.
Going by the finance ministry’s own Economic Survey, published a few days prior by its economic advisers there is a lot that has been left ‘not done’. The survey had presented a bold wish-list of reforms, including divestment of minority stakes in PSUs, easing restrictions on foreign direct investment (FDI); and even rethinking of labour laws.
What was seen was good old ‘tinkering’. No FDI caps were lifted, not in retail, not in civil aviation, not in Insurance.
What was of universal concern was the outcome that the central government’s deficit would widen to 6.8% of GDP in the year to March 2010. Add to it the state Government indebtedness and we will see the deficit in low double digits.
With the communists gone, the situation is similar to that of a recovering patient who has been in a cast for a long time. When the cast is cut off, lo and behold, it discovers it has forgotten to walk. It then needs to relearn walking. When it looks around, it discovers that many of the celebrated sprinters are suffering from multiple fractures. By all accounts India has weathered the global recession better than most. Our GDP grew by 5.8% in the last quarter of 2008, and in MQ of 2009. Much of it spurred by Government directed spending. It won rich dividends in terms of a electoral victory. The government wants to dole out more.
Our finances are precarious; debt approaches 80-85% of GDP. Are we recognizing that?
Handing out generous terms to Govt employees and enhancing the ear marked funds for disbursal under the National Rural Employment Guarantee Scheme will exacerbate the situation. Why are we convinced this is so required ?
Only the promise to introduce a nationwide goods and services tax (GST) by April 2010 is the bright spot. Unfortunately, the GST requires the all states to be on-board, and they guard their revenue-raising powers jealously. India’s tax regime on spirits is one case in point. Currently center-state powers are thus allocated that it bars states from taxing services, and prevents the central government taxing goods beyond the point of manufacture.
We need 'artha' to be the 'mool' of 'rajasya' not the other way around !!
Monday, July 13, 2009
Talent -Privately in Public domain
In the last few days Mr. Nandan Nilekeni, one of the founders of Infosys and hitherto an Officer of that Corporation joined the UID mission as Chief with the status of a Cabinet Minister while Mr. E Sreedharan, CEO of Delhi Metro Rail Corporation resigned after owning moral responsibility for a tragedy where five people lost their lives when a bridge under construction in South Delhi collapsed.
It is appropriate to look at the admission and retention of talent in this context.
Talent has to operate within the system. Government is ultimately only an operationalising arm of the will of the republic. It is a system. E Sreedharan has proved one can deliver the goods; all it calls for is commitment, caliber, conviction and courage.
What we refer to as The Government in India stands for a massive but slow and effete permanent executive and an aggressive, temporary and increasingly dominant political executive, i.e. those who carry out and implement policy and those who make it.
It has been repeated ad-nauseam that pliant babus have become willing accomplices at the hands of self-seeking netas thus corrupting the administration, killing bureaucratic initiative and jeopardizing the healthy and progressive growth of the larger India changing /India strengthening agenda.
In a country where cadre sensitivity of the bureaucracy is legendary it is of educational value to see how far the government can tap the talent available in the private sector to promote good governance.
In India, a government job is a slow train. The brute majority of Government personnel are the legendary ICS – No , not the Indian Civil Service, but the more ubiquitous and ultimately more powerful Indian Corridor Service i.e. the peons, the Lower and Upper divisional clerks and the section staff. Like the many coupes of a long train, they are classified as Class I, II, III or IV
In the past fifteen years or so, as the economy opened up, there was a flow of talent from the public to the private sector. It was easy picking for the private sector; they homed in on the experienced but poorly paid talent in the public sector. We saw this as the monopolies dissolved in commercial banking, insurance, power, steel, Oil, media, telecom etc
But not so much in the higher reaches of the civil service. Indeed, from time to time, senior civil servants have left government service to join the private sector and MNCs but by and large the 400 odd civil servants who run the show have been immune to cross-sector movements. Attrition would not rate a percentage point, one can guesstimate.
Admission of talent is not about a single person, it is not about admitting individuals. In essence, the culture of administration has to change. It is ultimately about the system. Consider :
Will we admit talent to only where those in power feel urgent and specific attention is required? On Missionary terms ?
How are the credentials vetted?
How are terms of reference decided for infusion of private individuals?
Private Interests in public domain who certifies caliber ?
What about infusion of external talent in the ‘commanding heights’ of the economy?
Why not a revolving door for the executive cadre at the Navratnas?
Can we consider the same in Policy Advisory Services, Governmental programs--Why not in the social sector? Customs, Taxation, Economic Diplomacy?
Why not every where and any where?
Unless we want to make this a case of voluntary sanyas on part of those who get admitted won’t we need to fix remuneration that is competitive enough to attract and more importantly retain talent?
Till the system is adaptive, such talent ingress and egress will continue to be just that : A "Private' decision in public domain.
It is appropriate to look at the admission and retention of talent in this context.
Talent has to operate within the system. Government is ultimately only an operationalising arm of the will of the republic. It is a system. E Sreedharan has proved one can deliver the goods; all it calls for is commitment, caliber, conviction and courage.
What we refer to as The Government in India stands for a massive but slow and effete permanent executive and an aggressive, temporary and increasingly dominant political executive, i.e. those who carry out and implement policy and those who make it.
It has been repeated ad-nauseam that pliant babus have become willing accomplices at the hands of self-seeking netas thus corrupting the administration, killing bureaucratic initiative and jeopardizing the healthy and progressive growth of the larger India changing /India strengthening agenda.
In a country where cadre sensitivity of the bureaucracy is legendary it is of educational value to see how far the government can tap the talent available in the private sector to promote good governance.
In India, a government job is a slow train. The brute majority of Government personnel are the legendary ICS – No , not the Indian Civil Service, but the more ubiquitous and ultimately more powerful Indian Corridor Service i.e. the peons, the Lower and Upper divisional clerks and the section staff. Like the many coupes of a long train, they are classified as Class I, II, III or IV
In the past fifteen years or so, as the economy opened up, there was a flow of talent from the public to the private sector. It was easy picking for the private sector; they homed in on the experienced but poorly paid talent in the public sector. We saw this as the monopolies dissolved in commercial banking, insurance, power, steel, Oil, media, telecom etc
But not so much in the higher reaches of the civil service. Indeed, from time to time, senior civil servants have left government service to join the private sector and MNCs but by and large the 400 odd civil servants who run the show have been immune to cross-sector movements. Attrition would not rate a percentage point, one can guesstimate.
Admission of talent is not about a single person, it is not about admitting individuals. In essence, the culture of administration has to change. It is ultimately about the system. Consider :
Will we admit talent to only where those in power feel urgent and specific attention is required? On Missionary terms ?
How are the credentials vetted?
How are terms of reference decided for infusion of private individuals?
Private Interests in public domain who certifies caliber ?
What about infusion of external talent in the ‘commanding heights’ of the economy?
Why not a revolving door for the executive cadre at the Navratnas?
Can we consider the same in Policy Advisory Services, Governmental programs--Why not in the social sector? Customs, Taxation, Economic Diplomacy?
Why not every where and any where?
Unless we want to make this a case of voluntary sanyas on part of those who get admitted won’t we need to fix remuneration that is competitive enough to attract and more importantly retain talent?
Till the system is adaptive, such talent ingress and egress will continue to be just that : A "Private' decision in public domain.
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